The Lost Demo
One unseasonably warm evening in September, 24-year-old Tyler W. sat in his Jersey City, NJ, apartment in front of his TV. But the financial analyst wasn’t watching a sitcom, an entertainment gossip show, the nightly news or even ESPN. Instead, Tyler was playing EA Sports’ FIFA Soccer 2004, a team sport videogame, on his Microsoft Xbox.
Tyler usually plays videogames or surfs the Internet for an hour or two after work. In the past, that’s time he might have spent watching TV. “I like the interactivity of sports videogames,” says Tyler, who didn’t wish to give his full name. “I don’t get that from television.”
Unfortunately for TV executives, Tyler isn’t an exception. When Nielsen Media Research’s fall sweeps ratings came out this past November, they clearly showed that men between the ages of 18 and 34 were watching less TV, particularly fewer prime-time shows.
For the period during the autumn weeks when many vaunted network shows hit the airwaves for the first time, Nielsen’s data concluded that men 18 to 34 watched a hotly debated 7.7% less, or 270 fewer seconds, of prime-time TV programming a day than they did a year earlier. That may seem an insignificant drop, but Nielsen’s research shows that younger men have been watching less television for the past 12 years and are no longer glued to the boob tube.
Collectively, this group accounts for about 12% of TV’s total audience. For ad-supported network and cable TV channels, with more than $37 billion in annual revenue, the male 18- to 34-year-old demographic accounts for about $4.3 billion. So, every minute that young males don’t watch prime-time programming could carry a potential price tag of about $77 million across network, cable, national syndication and national Hispanic TV channels. At the same time, 18- to 34-year-olds purchased 50% of all video games, consoles and accessories sold in 2000, according to Interactive Digital Software Association. NPD Group estimates this market is worth $10.6 billion.
Still, TV industry experts blame a large part of the drop in male viewers last fall to the networks’ failure to introduce shows that snagged them. During the fall season, the most popular programs were The Simpsons, Friends and CSI. New shows that had a measure of success, such as The O.C. and Joan of Arcadia, appealed more to women. “The majority of it is geared toward women … I mean, obviously, The Bachelor and Queer Eye for the Straight Guy,” says Scott A., a 23-year-old financial analyst who lives in Wayne, PA. (Scott also didn’t want his full name published.) “I watch football. I don’t watch any sitcoms, let’s put it that way.”
Younger men also have found other ways to spend their free time: playing videogames, watching DVDs, tuning in to cable channels, logging on to the Internet or ordering video-on-demand. Nielsen’s research shows that among men 18 to 34, daily videogame use jumped 22% during the period from the end of September to mid-November compared with the same period in 2002. While network viewership was down in fall 2003, ad-supported cable networks, such as ESPN and MTV, saw a 0.8% gain in their prime-time ratings over the previous year.
As TV loses its appeal among younger men, marketers are following the money. The PGA Tour, which is trying to attract younger fans, sponsors EA Sports’ golf video game Tiger Woods PGA Tour 2004. It even includes a section where the player can outfit his virtual persona with accessories from Nike, Tag Heuer and Adidas. Kris Magel, senior VP and group director of national broadcast at Optimedia, a New York City agency, says, “Partnerships with the developers of these games is a really interesting way to try to get in front of these guys.”
There are an estimated 32.7 million men in the U.S. between the ages of 18 and 34, or about 11.25% of the population. Within 10 years, this age group will grow 4% to 33.9 million. Even though younger men spend less money than other demographic groups, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Consumer Expenditure Survey in 2002, they will splurge more as they age and as their paychecks become heftier. Which is why advertisers want to reach younger men while they’re forming brand loyalties.
“Men 18 to 34 are hugely valuable,” says Steve Grubbs, partner and CEO of PHD, the media arm of Omnicom Group, New York City. “There are a whole slew of product categories that depend on that demographic. Ask WB, MTV, Pepsi, Coke or Sony Playstation. That’s their bread and butter.”
When Nielsen released its numbers in the fall, broadcast media giants, such as NBC and CBS, were outraged. Network executives said Nielsen’s updated mathematical methodology and population estimation system for counting viewers and weighting audiences introduced inaccuracies into TV ratings for that age group.
In late November, Nielsen published a 43-page paper concluding that it had found no errors in the collection process. However, Nielsen acknowledged that changes in methodology could account for 40% of the drop in prime-time viewing. Which means that 60% of the ratings decrease were traced back to younger men tuning out.
The Nielsen flap aside, younger men do seem to be losing interest in prime-time TV as they turn to cable shows, videogames, the Internet, digital video recorders (DVRs), DVDs, movies and video-on-demand. TV executives, as well as advertisers, are realizing that younger men, who have grown up with videogames and the Internet, are likely to use several kinds of media. “It would behoove advertisers who are interested in reaching that demographic to recognize the trend and look at the possibilities of other venues,” says Shari Anne Brill, VP-director of programming for Carat USA, a New York City ad agency.
Optimedia’s Magel says his clients consider different media to reach younger males. “We are looking to learn how to provide the best options for our clients across all forms of media,” he says. “It makes sense to get involved with them early, test out new things and be the ones to have the relationships with these companies when they start to reach critical mass.”
Savvy advertisers have already allocated large chunks of their marketing budgets to other media. While Volkswagen of America spent over $125 million on television advertising in 2003, it also paid Sony Computer Entertainment to feature one of its vehicles in Gran Turismo 3: A Spec. In the car-racing game, players can buy different models, from the Dodge Viper to Volkswagen’s new Beetle.
Then there are marketers who have created their own content. In 2001, BMW hired some of Hollywood’s top action movie directors — John Woo, Guy Ritchie and Ang Lee — to create short films featuring the company’s cars. “The best way to reach them [men 18 to 34] is to provide the content, like BMWfilms.com,” says Magel. “It’s the best way to speak with them. But it’s not like companies that sell pattern baldness cures can provide these great films.”
Some ad executives say their TV counterparts can lure back younger men if they provide programming for them. “It does seem that there are networks out there that appeal to this demo that are doing better in cable,” Magel says. “MTV has better programming for them, and Spike is doing well. There are places where they are going.”
TV executives may provide programming that appeals to younger men, but brands still have to accept that males aren’t content flipping TV channels anymore. So, advertisers will have to go where the young men are.
Back at home, Tyler W. plays his videogames. To reach him and other young males, marketers have to realize they’re more than just couch potatoes.