Marketers are just now starting to figure out what mobile can offer them, and many have yet to test what’s possible in the realm of social networks such as Facebook. But two new reports, one from ABI Research and the other from JupiterResearch, suggest they don’t have any time to waste.
The ABI study finds the number of users navigating those social networks via handset could hit 140 million in five years. The study takes a global view, and thus much of the early traffic on mobile social networks might occur overseas. But the success of mobile communities in other countries would foster their acceptance in North America too, given the viral propensities of those networks.
“Subscriber numbers for mobile social networking will climb at a relatively modest rate for the next three or four years, but will then start to accelerate sharply,” Michael Wolf, ABI’s research director, said in a statement. “That uptick is based on assumed acceptance levels in the giant emerging markets such as Brazil, Russia, India and China.”
In terms of what a large new mobile audience will mean for marketers, the ABI study said the business model most likely to catch on for mobile social networks is the same one that supports Facebook, MySpace, Hi5 and the other major social nets now: free browser-based access.
Since mobile carriers will probably not be able to charge subscription fees to reach mobile social nets, they will probably try to underwrite the cost of making the services available to their customers with ad revenue. Carriers can expect to earn subscription revenues of about $410 million from mobile social networking by 2013, the report said.
The JupiterResearch study finds evidence of the same untapped potential for social networking over cellphones. Jupiter said that only 13% of cell phone users interact with a social network over their devices right now, compared to 49% who do so over a computer.
While consumers are creating content on their cell phones, relatively few are sharing that content with other mobile users. For example, the Jupiter study finds, 47% of users take pictures with their cell phones, but only 14% transfer them to a PC and only 7% post those photos online. Lack of demand, perceived high data costs and complexity were the reasons most often cited for not sharing content created on a phone.
“Mobile social networking is an open frontier waiting to be claimed” by the networks, the wireless carriers, or the handset makers, the Jupiter report found.
Like the ABI research, the Jupiter study finds that carriers won’t be able to control mobile access to social networks by their users, and that they will find it easier to facilitate mobile social networks than to dominate them.
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