Both Adobe and Deloitte say deals will fuel online sales growth. Inflation will slow holiday sales producing more modest growth after pandemic-related surges.
Consulting firm Deloitte and digital customer experience vendor Adobe both estimate 2024 online holiday sale will increase around 8% compared with last year.
Deloitte forecasts a slowdown in holiday sales growth
Deloitte estimates that online holiday sales will grow 7%-9% compared with the 2023 holiday season and will reach $289-$294 billion dollars for the three months November 2024, December 2024 and January 2025.
The firm is forecasting a slowdown in sales growth compared with the 2023 holiday season, when online sales grew 10.1% year over year, reaching $270 billion. Instead, consumer spend is going to return to a more normal growth pattern similar to the past 10-15 years, unlike the sales spikes related to the pandemic, Deloitte said.
“Following a sharp rise in spending post-pandemic, this season’s retail sales are expected to moderately increase in line with trends over the past decade,” said Michael Jeschke, retail and consumer products sector leader.
Ecommerce will fuel total holiday sales growth, which Deloitte estimates will increase 2.3%-3.3% for the 2024 season (November 2024, December 2024 and January 2025). Again, Deloitte is forecasting a slowdown in sales growth compared with the 2023 season, when total sales increased 4.3%.
“Inflation is both a headwind and tailwind to holiday sales,” said Deloitte economist Akrur Barua. “While declining inflation aids consumers’ purchasing power, it also is expected to negatively impact the nominal rise in the dollar value of sales. In addition, rising credit card debt and the possibility that many consumers have exhausted their pandemic-era savings will likely weigh on sales growth this season compared to the previous one.”
Although the pace of growth is slower, it will still be a solid holiday season for retailers, Barua said. Retailers that have built loyalty and trust with shoppers throughout the year should be “well positioned for success,” Jeschke said.
Adobe forecasts online sales increase 8.4%
Adobe forecasts online 2024 holiday sales will increase 8.4% year over year, which it defines as online sales November-December. Adobe’s forecast is an acceleration in growth over its 2023 online holiday sales estimate, which was a 4.9% year-over-year increase.
While both firms are in line with their growth expectations for the 2024 season, because the firms had different 2023 holiday sales estimates, Deloitte’s forecast is a slowdown, while Adobe’s is an acceleration.
Discounts will power online sales
Both Adobe and Deloitte agree that readily available discounts will power online sales.
“Our forecast indicates that ecommerce sales will remain strong as consumers continue to take advantage of online deals to maximize their spending,” Deloitte’s Jeschke said.
Adobe estimates discounts will peak around 30% off list price, which will occur at the end of November around Thanksgiving weekend and into the beginning of December.
Adobe estimates that discounts will be more spread out with some deals beginning in October. In fact, Amazon.com recently announced another Deals Days event for its Prime loyalty members Oct. 8-9.
Adobe also forecasts:
- Mobile sales will reach 53.6% of ecommerce holiday sales.
- Purchases via buy-now-pay-later platforms such as Afterpay, Affirm and Klarna will increase 11.4% year over year and drive $18.5 billion in online sales in November and December 2024.
- Online sales on Black Friday will increase 9.9% year over year, and Thanksgiving online sales will grow 8.7%. Both days will outpace Cyber Monday’s growth, which Adobe estimates at 6.1%.
- Best-selling products will include Bluey Ultimate Lights and Sounds Playhouse, Slime Kits, Sony PlayStation 5, Madden NFL 25, iPhone 16 and Ninja Creami.
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