On Borrowed Time
Depending on whom you ask, the pop as we know it is living on borrowed time. The pop has already quietly been under siege. ISPs offer pop blockers to attract customers; a slew of popular browser toolbars provide them for free in exchange for your coveted browser space and search revenue; and a litany of software developers have come out with paid versions. While prevalent, the impact has not appeared to cause panic, most likely because the impact has been hard to quantify. Is it 10%, 17%, 25%? We know but we don’t. This may all change when Internet Explorer, which owns upwards of 70% of the browser market, releases a built in pop blocker in its next service pack.
For marketers, the current hope is that IE will set the blocker to off by default, and given the overall trend among users to leave their browsers settings as-is, this may mean a reprieve for the pop industry, much like CAN SPAM is for email. I know that many in the industry must have had a heart attack last November when these words were first published, “I can confirm SP2 will include an update to IE that adds pop-up blocking.”
Whether set to “off” or “on,” the pop is already starting to be the online equivalent of Michael Jackson – beloved by many but an outcast to others. While there is no shortage of people gladly buying pops, many of the higher dollar clients have already “Beat It.” They have moved away from the pop to focus on, at times equally intrusive, rich media spots embedded on the user’s current page.
One of the big questions on people’s minds is what will replace the pop. Technically, it isn’t hard to block the blocker, but that option has yet to excite many advertisers. As a result, much of the attention has shifted to desktop advertising. Most advertisers are aware that the vast majority of pop blocking solutions won’t inhibit desktop applications’ ability to launch pop advertisements. And, while companies such as Claria and WhenU have had time in the spotlight, it is my belief that consumers are generally in the dark regarding the workings of the desktop market. Like any other market, it too is incredibly complex and likely not to stay immune from the pressures that face pop and email.
More than anything, the main point driving so much of this reform seems to be the simple fact that users don’t like to be interrupted from what they are doing. Commercial email distracts users, to the point that there is a law regulating it; pops annoy users and are fighting for their survival; many desktop applications appear invisible to the user and only increase their anger towards online advertising. While I am concerned about the changes ahead, when looking at the picture holistically, what I believe we are experiencing is simply growing pains. Marketers and end-users simply haven’t reached that comfort level that other, more established mediums have. TV commercials interrupt my tube time; I don’t know how people can make it through certain magazines, and, I can’t imagine many people being thankful for the billboards that adorn what is otherwise beautiful highway scenery. Let’s not even talk about the full-fledged commercials before some movies – and to think we had to pay to see them! How bad can the pop really be?
The only reason in my opinion that 18 to 23 minutes of commercials per hour of programming is tolerated (or more if you are USA Network), is that users simply can’t call up Chevy and yell at them for interrupting Friends the way online users can. In the online world, we deal with empowered users, and that’s why, at the end of the day, we are simply trying to achieve a harmonious balance, the yin and yang of content to advertising. Online advertising, given its dynamic nature and instant, direct feedback, is as mentioned before simply growing-up, and as is commonly said during development, hopefully this is just a phase.
