Catalog and interactive sales, which currently make up 3.46% of the $2.7 trillion retail market, should see their share grow to 6.25% by 2004. The Internet, which in 1998 made up 0.22% of all retail sales, will amount to 2.53% of the $3.3 trillion market.
According to information released yesterday from the Direct Marketing Association’s “Economic Impact: U.S. Direct Marketing Today” study, the retail industry will grow by 3.6% annually through 2004. But catalog and interactive sales will take an increasingly large piece of the pie, with their share increasing 6.1% and 50.2% every year.
Business to business catalog sales, which in 1999 are forecast as amounting to $36.2 billion, will see faster growth than consumer catalogs, with rates compounded annually at 6.6%, resulting in $49.7 billion in 2004. Consumer catalogs are forecast as growing 5.7% annually from 1999’s $57.1 billion to $75.5 billion in 2004.
But consumer and B-to-B sales in the interactive arena are expected to grow at nearly identical levels, with annual growth through 2004 anticipated at 51.3% and 49.6%, respectively. In 2004, the consumer interactive market, forecast in 1999 as $3.9 billion, should be just over $31 billion, and the B-to-B market, anticipated in 1999 as $7.1 billion, should be $53.3 billion.
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