By 2005, 96 Million Will Use Wireless Web, But There Are Limitations
The number of U.S. wireless Web users will increase to 96 million in 2005 from 4.1 million in 2000, according to a new report by Jupiter Media Metrix.
Jupiter analysts warn, however, that the wireless industry must scale its plans for the U.S. mobile services to suit limitations in bandwidth, multiple service platforms and numerous competing service providers.
Calling the current mobile environment “highly competitive and fractured,” Seamus McAteer, senior Jupiter analyst said: “This means the industry must hold back on ambitious plans to deliver mobile multimedia, and instead focus on delivering simple yet practical interactive services, such as games, short messaging and location-specific directories.” That’s because these messages are viable across multiple networks and narrow bandwidth.
The study found that the 96 million users of the mobile Web in 2005 will break down as follows: 74.9 million will be using voice-centric handsets, 7.3 million will be using data-centric handsets, 4.4 million will be using online PDAs and 9.4 million will be using offline PDAs.
In the U.S., regional carriers will struggle to survive against national carriers, and these will likely decrease in number to three giants within five years.
Despite the promise of 3G broadband mobile networks, its services are not a near-term reality. Instead, the U.S. market will be characterized by narrowband connections and packet data services, which will support economic delivery of highly interactive applications.
While broadband mobile connections will provide a viable target platform in Japan within two years, companies focusing on the U.S. or European markets must wait between four and six years.
The U.S. rollout of location-based services will take at least two years because of FCC mandates to provide precise positioning for 911 callers.
