If you can figure out a foolproof way to estimate the amount that U.S. brands will spend on marketing within social media this year or next, kindly let the experts know.
The problem is that social marketing now takes so many different forms in so many different channels that it’s hard to get a handle on the total resources being used. For example, do you count only the amount brands are spending to buy display ads on the profile pages within established social networks? In that case, eMarketer says, spending will actually decline this year by about 3% to $1.1 billion, largely due to an expected 15% falloff in ad revenue at MySpace, the leader in social network ads. Growth should resume next year, when ad spending will rise 13.2% to $1.3 billion, according to the agency, and then grow another 8.2% in 2011 to $1.4 billion.
But the eMarketer forecast does not include campaigns run on Twitter, since it does not offer paid advertising. Nevertheless some marketers have been very active on Twitter. Dell earned $1 million in revenue in 2008 from the exclusive deals offered on its @DellOutlet account, and another $1 million in the first six months of this year. JetBlue offers Twitter-only last-minute fares on @jetbluecheeps. And companies such as H&R Block and Best Buy have baked Twitter use into their business models. With that level of big-brand acceptance, the money spent on that non-ad-oriented social media has to be acknowledged.
Then too, brands have ramped up their efforts to build social experiences, both in-network and on sites they own. Ford Motor Co.’s FiestaMovement.com campaign put 100 “agents” into 2010 Fiestas last April and sent them driving around the country on monthly missions, blogging, vlogging and tweeting about their experiences. By late October, the promotion had generated 4.8 million YouTube views, 600,000 Flickr views and 3.2 million Twitter impressions. Presumably that content is drawing people to the Web site, where visitors can also sign up to be alerted when Fiesta test drive teams are in their areas so they can schedule test drives. The company says more than 28,000 have driven a Fiesta so far, though the teams also appear at regional events and festivals.
Quick-service contender Wendy’s launched a microsite, www.WendysRealTime.com, that seeks out and serves up a constant flow of user content, video and social media updates relating to hunger and hamburgers in real Internet time. (Real time for “real” food, you see.) In November the site also integrated with a social game that rewarded players for tweeting using the hashtag #bacon and completing daily tasks posted at @UrBaconMeCrazy. The daily point leader won a $200 gift card, and the grand prize winner took away a check for $2,000. A leaderboard was available at the UrBaconMeCrazy Facebook page, along with a widget to link in friends.
You have to include the costs involved in such campaigns as social marketing expenses, don’t you? For that reason, a forecast by Forrester Research that takes in brands’ “owned social assets” like internal blogs and community sites may give a fuller picture of spending in the channel. Forrester pegs U.S. social marketing spending this year at $716 million and expects it will hit $935 million next year, an increase of 30.6%, before ramping up to $3.1 billion in 2014.
Finally, while they may not be considered marketing functions, one could certainly make an argument that syndicated product reviews, customer service and reputation monitoring also constitute indirect marketing through social media. So far, no forecasters appear able to take account of that spending by brands.
SOCIAL MARKETING
Where the Fish Are Now
| Sept.’09 | Sept.’08 | %Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58.6% | 19.9% | 194% | |
| MySpace | 30.3% | 66.8% | -55% |
| Tagged | 2.4% | 1.6% | 47% |
| 1.8% | 0.2% | 1170% | |
| myYearbook | 1.1% | 1.8% | -40% |
Source: Experian Hitwise Report, October 2009
Network
