Few Bright Spots In Media Sales Forecast: Magna

Media supplier advertising revenue will sink to $161.4 billion in 2009, according to media services firm Magna. That figure represents a 14.5% drop from 2008’s level. And there isn’t much hope for recovery during the next few years: Magna anticipates the compounded annual ad revenue growth rate between 2009 and 2014 to be only 0.9%.

At least that represents growth. Radio ad revenue has dropped of late, dipping to $14 billion in 2009. And the next five year’s won’t be fun, either, with radio ad revenue slipping by 0.8% a year.

And at $15.7 billion, magazine spending has plummeted, and there isn’t much hope for turnaround. Its declines will continue through 2014, on a compounded annual basis of 3.3% every year.

Move from slick paper to pulp, and the future looks bleaker. Total ad sales for newspapers – including online revenue – will amount to $28.5 billion, and that number is going to drop by 3.7% annually through 2014.

What good news there is, is tepid. For instance, total television consumption is set to rise, as population increases and viewing will outstrip embracement of digital video recorders. Total television spending, which stands at an estimated $47.7 billion for 2009, will rise by 3.2% during the next five years.

And while the rate of broadband computer penetration is slowing, it is still rising and should it 70% by 2014. At that time, most computer access will be broadband-based, Magna predicted.

Where is growth? No surprise there: Direct online media expenditures will amount to $13.9 billion in 2009, and will increase between this year and 2014 by 10.2% on a compounded annual basis.

Similarly, total online spend, which stands at $23 billion for 2009, will jump by 8.4% compounded annually through 2014.

The biggest surprise may be in Magna’s direct mail predictions. At $19.2 billion, supplier revenue is down 11.2% for the year. But – whether due to postage and printing increases, or a swing back of the pendulum as marketers re-embrace the mail – between now and 2014 it is seen as growing at 2% annually.