Catalogers are just as unsure of the future as everyone else. But they now have a tool to help them survive a war or calamity.
The Direct Marketing Association has issued a white paper on contingency planning during a crisis. The authors, Fred Anderson of AndersonDirect and Peter A. Johnson, a senior economist with the DMA, advise catalogers to prepare for a “brief but intense war,” and possibly a domestic crisis like the anthrax scare of 2001.
Both scenarios pose both risks and opportunities, they continue. For example, consumers are likely to stop reading catalogs as they focus on television news. They may also postpone purchases of non-essential items.
In the worst case, rising oil prices and a falling stock market may reduce consumer confidence. In addition, the postal delivery and banking systems may be disrupted.
On the other hand, consumers may choose to shop at home during an emergency rather than risk a trip to a store. And a quick victory could lead to a rebound in catalog spending.
So what should a cataloger do?
Above all, think of limiting risk. Conduct analyses to eliminate the bottom segments of your lists, and cut back on unprofitable prospecting in favor of house-file reactivation.
To make up for lost demand, consider an extra mailing to the best-performing house-file segments. But you might also be able to eliminate a drop by analyzing your “curve truncation.” And if you do, you may be able to make up for it, in part, by doing a reminder postcard mailing or e-mail blast, the authors say.
Anderson and Johnson also advise mailers to “pay attention to the calendar. While press times are usually
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