The GOP’s generally business-positive outlook bodes well for the direct marketing industry, but several “killer issues,” specifically taxation and privacy, may spell rough times, according to a letter from H. Robert Wientzen, the Direct Marketing Association’s president and CEO.
According to Wientzen, Bush seems to favor a moratorium rather than a permanent ban on Internet taxes. “Expect a fair amount of activity here and lots of talk about tax simplification, but our guess is that we will not see any draconian law in the near term.” But Wientzen noted that this is counterbalanced by Bush’s close ties with state governors, who support some form of Internet taxes to offset a perceived challenge to brick-and-mortar retailers.
Wientzen also said that while a perceived economic downturn provides a strong argument against regulation, “if a serious privacy bill hits the floor of the House, we will undoubtedly see a major battle that pits business interests against populists’ interests. It’s hard to see the House voting against the popular view, however hurtful it is to direct and interactive marketers.”
While the DMA’s relationship with the FTC has been “less friendly over the last couple of years,” Wientzen expects a thaw when current chairman Robert Pitofsky’s term ends and he is replaced with a Republican. But Wientzen acknowledged that the FTC is proving responsive to calls for increased scrutiny of the direct marketing industry, especially regarding Web activity and the use of marketing data.
On a state-by-state basis, Wientzen warned that telemarketing restrictions would likely become more prevalent. States are expected to limit the hours outbound calls can be made, and the use of predictive dialers curtailed.
Wientzen saved his strongest words for Tuesday’s Federal Trade Commission hearings on data acquisition and profiling techniques. “It’s hard to see anything good coming from these hearings, which will create more bad publicity,” he wrote.
“Hopefully, we’ll see a philosophic shift that will diminish this kind of witch-hunt in the future.”
Bright spots for the industry, according to Wientzen, include free trade (“we believe the Bush White House will be a strong advocate of free trade, with a clear leaning toward open agreements and against retaliations for trade sanctions” and other global marketing issues (“we see the probability of more federal effort aimed at easing restrictions and encouraging you to pursue global operations”).
Wientzen’s reactions are based “on a White House briefing, and a couple of meetings of association heads, as well as lots of contact among DMA staff members, new Administration appointees and Members of Congress,” according to his letter.
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