Semi-Bold 2010 Media Predictions and Observations
2009 was a fascinating year for online media, and 2010 proves to be even more interesting. Much as already been said about 2009, so I’ll pick up from here and give you my super duper prognostications and predictions for 2010
Flogs – (Can we talk about this just a little more please?)
Ok so here is the deal. Flogs are still alive and kicking even going into 2010, and don’t expect them to totally disappear. Do expect them to get pushed further downstream into smaller networks that have a higher pain threshold (and revenue requirements). There are two main forces, however, severely limiting their impact on online marketing. First are the publishers. Swamped with customer complaints, publishers (Yahoo, MSN, AOL) are taking a harsh stance at flog marketing and in some cases eliminating them all together. Much has been written about this already, so I wont belabor the point. The second, certainly more lethal force is our friends over at the FTC. The FTC is getting out the magic markers and starting to draw a bullseye on the backs on Affiliates and Advertisers, and I expect a few shootings in 2010. This threat alone has already cleared out a whole number of folks from contemplating the Flog as the marketing vehicle of choice.
Hybrid Networks Come Into Their Own
2009 saw the proliferation and expansion of some of the more fascinating Ad Networks. Medium aside (mobile, display, email), these boutique networks are finding more and more creative ways to drive interesting media down to the consumer. These Networks have been turbo-charged by the virtual glut of online ad inventory, and their ability to buy that inventory fairly inexpensively, then turn around and sell it to a horde of 22 year old media buyers. Hybrid networks are pushing the envelope on targeting (look for re-targeting networks to explode in 2010), to creative (dynamic HTML banners which self optimize based on revenue per click), all the way down to hosting and writing content on behalf of the advertiser. Networks like Pulse360, HowLifeWorks, TrafficVance, and FetchBack are doing some very interesting things in my opinion.
Little Guys (and Gals) Will Continue To Crush It
Lightweight, virtual gangs of online media buyers will continue to dominate this space. Armed with simple tools, sophisticated buying, and a voracious appetite for more beer money, this underground army is the culmination of preparation meets opportunity. The gang that consumes Wicked Fire forum posts each morning is finding more and more ways to successfully interact with self service ad networks, which allow them to control large chucks of media all from their laptop, in a non descript basement somewhere. With no boss, and swimming in profits, this army will continue to prosper and expand into 2010.
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