Lost Youth

Every four years, it’s the same story: Presidential candidates strive to engage young voters in the political process. Activists put together elaborate programs to drive young people to the polls. And then Election Day data brings fresh disappointment: young Americans don’t vote. “Young people today are far less likely to vote than their older brothers and sisters, or their parents when they were young,” says David King, research director of political studies at Harvard University’s Institute of Politics.

Since 1972, the first presidential election after the voting age was lowered to 18 from 21, election participation among 18- to 24-year-olds has fallen by nearly a third, from 52% to 37%, according to the University of Maryland’s Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement. This drop is larger than the 4% slide among Americans overall.

It’s not that young Americans don’t care. In a survey for American Demographics, polling firm Zogby International of Utica, NY, found that of 257 respondents aged 18 to 29, 97% say that it’s important for citizens in a democracy to vote. Of those likely to vote, 37% say they believe it is their duty as a citizen and 25% say they registered to vote in order to make a difference or have their voice heard.

So what’s keeping young people from participating in elections? Only about half of those between the ages of 18 and 24 are registered to vote, according to Census Bureau data. A Youth Vote 2004 survey found that most of those who are not registered simply feel they don’t know enough about the issues and candidates to register or vote. That may be because they’re cynical. Zogby’s survey found that more than one in three (35%) say that their vote matters somewhat or “not at all.” Fewer than half (48%) think that it matters “very much.” Democrats are less likely than Republicans to think that their vote counts (54% to 72%) — a possible aftereffect of the 2000 Florida debacle, Zogby suggests.

Instead, young Americans put their energies into civic activities other than voting. An October 2003 poll of 1,202 college students conducted for Harvard’s Institute of Politics found that 65% say they’ve volunteered for community service within the past year. “Students continue to overwhelmingly choose to affect change in their local communities, rather than in the political arena,” the pollster’s report concludes.

Could this change in the 2004 election? “It may be different this year,” says Zogby. “You’ve got candidates that are targeting young people, and you’ve also got a war.” Howard Dean, for example, surged to early front-runner status thanks in part to his anti-war appeals to the young. Some observers also postulate that the closely contested 2000 presidential race and post-Sept. 11 patriotism will draw more young people to politics. A tight race would help, too. In January’s Iowa caucuses, voters under 30 made up 17% of caucusgoers, up from 9% in 2000. On the other hand, under-30 voters accounted for 14% of ballots in the New Hampshire primary, up only slightly from 13% in 2000.

If they do go to the polls, young Americans are a large enough group to carry some serious sway. More than one in every eight eligible voters is between the ages of 18 and 24. Young voters also tend not to have strong partisan or candidate loyalties, experts say, making them potential swing votes and attractive targets for campaigns.

Still, young Americans are split fairly evenly along party lines, with about a third each claiming to be Democrat, Republican and Independent. That makes this generation more conservative than previous ones. “The Democratic Party can’t count on young people to turn out for them, or if they turn out, to vote for them,” King says.

Specific issues don’t mean much when it comes to casting ballots. Instead, young people tend to vote based on fuzzier qualities such as leadership, authenticity and integrity, experts say. In the Zogby poll, 43% of young voters cited credibility or honesty as the traits most important to them in a candidate, and nearly 20% said they looked most at ethics.

Ultimately, it’s still unclear whether young people will turn out in greater numbers this year. Experts say getting these young voters to the polls costs three times as much as it does for older voters. Combined with the low turnout rates among this group, it’s a Catch 22: Politicians don’t court young Americans because they don’t vote, and young Americans don’t vote because politicians don’t court them. The party or candidate who can break the cycle will reap the votes.