Consumer spending may be slowing, according to the National Retail Federation.
Retail industry sales for June—excluding automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants—rose 6.7% over last year and increased 0.2% seasonally adjusted over May, according to the NRF.
June retail sales including autos, gas stations and restaurants increased 6.2% over last year and decreased 0.2% from May, according to figures released by the U.S. Department of Commerce last week. While industry-related sales paint a somewhat rosier picture than Commerce numbers, it still represents a slight slowing in consumer spending, the NRF said in a statement.
While year-over-year increases remain strong, month-to-month gains appear flat, the NRF said.
Also according to the NRF:
--Health and personal care stores showed strong gains, increasing 8.6% unadjusted from last year, while increasing a slight 0.7% seasonally adjusted over May.
--Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores also showed robust growth, increasing 11.3% unadjusted from last June, while increasing a modest 0.4% seasonally adjusted from the previous month.
--Clothing and clothing accessories stores, benefiting from the summer heat rose 5.9% unadjusted from last June, while only increasing 0.3% from May.
--Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers still showed steady growth, up 8.4% unadjusted from last June. However, seasonally adjusted comparisons from the previous month show a 1.0% decline.
In spite of a slowing housing market, furniture and home furnishings stores remain healthy with a 10.4% increase in sales unadjusted from last year and 1.3% seasonally adjusted increase month-to-month, according to the NRF.
“After months of speculation, consumers are beginning to pull back,” said NRF Chief Economist Rosalind Wells, in a statement. “Retailers can expect the second half of the year to show moderate gains due to the slow down in the housing market and other economic factors such as rising interest rates and higher gas prices.”
According to NRF’s latest Retail Sales Outlook, retail industry sales in the third quarter are expected to increase 5.5%, followed by a gain of 4.6% in the fourth quarter. Because of the strong first half, even with some deceleration in sales for the balance of the year, industry sales are tracking to a 6.0% gain for the year, the NRF added.
