Who do you trust?
That is, whose word do you take on the state of the list business?
List managers and brokers say that rental volume and commissions are up (See story The New List Business).
But mailers don't necessarily agree. We contacted both groups for our 2007 list use survey and got slightly different results from each.
And while there's no terrible news, the poll shows that the rental market is changing. This is affecting marketers and vendors despite minor differences and statistical anomalies.
Barely a quarter of the mailers surveyed increased their use of postal lists this year — a marked decline from 2006 — while almost as many decreased it. However, e-mail is booming. Some 70% are using more e-mail files.
Yet e-mail lists tend to be smaller than postal ones, so overall name volume has risen for only a third of our mailers, compared with almost half last year. It's fallen for almost a fourth.
Does that mean DMers are mailing smarter? Could be. But it also may prove that the recent postal hikes are cutting into mailing plans.
Additionally, few firms have boosted both compiled and response list rentals. Are higher select and running charges contributing to the slowdown?
Not really. Fewer mailers said their extra costs have gone up.
At the same time, the survey shows that respondents may be averse to risk. Some expanded their continuations, and fewer stepped up tests.
That should be good news for list managers, since they make money on continuations. But they reported the exact opposite (see story on page 10).
Meanwhile, business-to-consumer mailers were more likely to increase their continuations than those in business-to-business.
(One word of caution: The mailer sample in this survey was far larger than the one for the vendors.)
And more mailers have turned to their house files (44%), compared with 35% last year.
Telephone list usage slid — more companies cut back on it than increased it. And most mailers reported no change when it came to the use of insert media.
Holiday list rentals are flat, but not all mailers were sure of their plans when polled.
Response rates also seem flat — or steady, depending on your point of view. There was a slight drop in the number of firms claiming an increase, but the biggest single number reported no change. Who did best on response? B-to-B marketers.
A mere 16% of all mailers said their list rental revenue had gone up. That result may be skewed by the sample size, the businesses surveyed and the fact that not all rent their lists.
But there's one piece of very good news for managers and brokers.
Few list owners changed their managers in the last 12 months.
As Frederick Reichheld says, loyalty rules.
METHODOLOGY
This survey was conducted for Direct and Multichannel Merchant by Penton Research, an in-house firm. It was e-mailed to 34,453 of the magazines' print and e-mail newsletter subscribers with responsibilities in a variety of list industry functions. Participants were chosen on an nth-name basis (a representative sample of all subscribers).
An initial copy of the survey, offering a chance to win one of four $50 Amazon.com gift certificates, was sent out July 19. Two follow-up e-mails, along with the sweepstakes offer, were sent to non-respondents.
Results are based on surveys returned by 191 qualified participants: catalogers (13%); manufacturers (11%); publishers (9%); communications professionals (4%); wholesalers and distributors (4%); and data processors (2%). The remaining 57% were from other list-using and list-distributing disciplines.
In some cases, subscribers who answered “Don't know” or “Unsure” in response to certain questions were eliminated from vote totals. Any question for which this was done maintained the minimum number of responses to ensure stable data.
Respondents' median annual revenue was $8.1 million. They reported current-year revenue as follows: under $1 million (22%); $1 million to $2.5 million (9%); $2.5 million to $5 million (9%); $5 million to $10 million (16%); $10 million to $25 million (11%); $25 million to $100 million (12%); $100 million to $500 million (12%); $500 million to $1 billion (4%); and more than $1 billion (4%). Numbers do not total 100% due to rounding.
