The numbers may differ by a tenth of a percentage or so, and the hard dollars may not line up, but the general trends are the same: Global marketing spending is going to jump in 2011, with Brazil, Russia, India and China (the “BRIC” countries) leading the way, according to three looks at the coming year.
The reports – from MagnaGlobal, GroupM and ZenithOptima – don’t necessarily measure the same mediums, and some may use different definitions, depending on how finely they break out online channels. But overall trends are encouraging.
Take GroupM, which anticipates $501.7 billion (all numbers quoted are U.S. dollars) in global ad spending in 2011, up from a forecast $474.15 billion – a 5.8% jump -- this year. Much of that movement will come from the Asia-Pacific region, which will see a 17% increase to $158.2 billion. This is largely due to China’s contribution, which is being fueled by15% wage increases coupled with inflation rates of 3%, according to GroupM”s Worldwide Media & Marketing Forecast.
Next year’s predictions for Central and Eastern Europe calls for a 11.4% increase in advertising spending, a figure which is somewhat less impressive when one realizes this market’s total value will only be $20.22 billion. In comparison the much larger, and much more mature Western Europe market will reach $112.8 billion, a 2.5% increase.
“Western Europe faces the heaviest headwinds as consumers are weighted down by austerity measures, and in the case of the periphery a forced march back to competitiveness by way of lower living standards,” according to GroupM’s report.
North America will continue to make up the largest advertising market, with GroupM calling for a 3.9% increase, to $161.49 billion in 2011. But the rate of increase is the second-slowest throughout the world, trailed only by Western Europe.
It is, however, faster than the increase foreseen for 2010 over 2009’s level. “We think the U.S. ad market rose only 1% in 2010, with a lot of help from the auto recovery and the midterm elections – but even that modest single digit would be a five-point improvement over our despairing forecast of a year ago,” GroupM’s report notes. Why will 2011 be a better year? Corporations should be restoring general investment, “which fell further and faster than just about anywhere, from ample reserves.”
MagnaGlobal’s predictions peg media supplier revenue in 2011 at $412 billion, a 5.4% jump from 2010. Spending increases in India and China, along with Argentina, will lead the way, according to MagnaGlobal, “more than offsetting declines from the struggling advertising sectors in Greece, Croatia and Ireland.”
MagnaGlobal’s channel predictions call for online advertising to overtake newspapers as the second-largest advertising medium by 2013, when it will amount to $87 billion, up from an anticipated $63 billion in 2010.
Within the online arena, paid search will jump from $30.5 billion this year to $43.9 billion in 2013; online video advertising, which currently should pull in $3.3 billion will more than double to $7 billion in 2013; and mobile advertising, which now stands at $2.1 billion, will reach $4 billion in the three-year time frame. The remainder, “other Internet Advertising”, will tick steadily, if not quite as impressively, up from $27.1 billion this year to $32.1 billion.
“The largest markets will remain the same through this time horizon, with the U.S., Japan, Germany, the U.K. and China dominating, but with China’s growth accounting for the largest gains in years ahead,” according to MagnaGlobal. “China will account for 9% of the world’s online advertising by 2016, up from 5% in 2011.”
ZenithOptimedia pegs the U.S. as the top ad market in the world, with current expenditures reaching $151.52 billion, followed by Japan ($43.27 billion); Germany ($24.63 billion) and China ($22.6 billion). But by 2013 China is foreseen as wresting the number three spot from Germany, when it’s ad expenditures will reach $34.27 billion.
Developing markets will account for most of the growth during the next few years, with these countries comprising 35.9% of expenditures in 2013, up from 31.5% in 2010, per ZenithOptimedia. On a pure dollars-spent basis, the largest contributors to global advertising spending growth between 2010 and 2013 will be the U.S. ($13.33 billion in increased spending); China ($11.63 billion); Russia ($4.43 billion); and Brazil ($4.42 billion).
Global Internet spending – the only direct channel broken out by ZenithOptimedia’s report – will amount to $61.88 billion in 2010, and will reach $91.52 billion in 2013. Within this category display ad spending will rise from $21 billion this year to $32.07 billion; classified ads will increase from $10.35 billion to $13.29 billion; and paid search will jump from $30.54 billion to $46.16 billion.
ZenthOptimedia Anne Austin provided predictions for a few direct response channels within the U.S. In 2010, direct mail is expected to amount to $47.66 billion, a figure that includes $6.01 billion in unaddressed mail such as fliers and leaflets and $41.65 billion in addressed mail. By 2013, this will increase to $51.45 billion, made up of $45.07 billion in addressed mail and $6.38 billion in undressed mail.
U.S. telemarketing spending, which should stand at $49.4 billion this year, will rise to $52.43 billion.
