Nine for '09: Loyalty & Engagement Trends

It's been said that predictions are hard to make, especially about the future. Fortunately, loyalty and engagement metrics are leading indicators of what consumers think and, more importantly, how they are going to behave—in categories, toward brands, and in the real-world marketplace. If it helps, think of these insights as a loyalty and engagement version of a crystal ball – or a brand's marketing early-warning system. Fortunately, when properly configured, these metrics can measure the direction, velocity, and intensity of future consumer values, often 12 or 18 months in advance of major market shifts and well ahead of any consumer articulation in focus groups or traditional market research.

Here are nine major trends that will have a direct impact on the success—or failure—of brand marketing efforts in 2009:

1. Price Matters if you're a commodity.

With financial pressures and a lack of confidence in the economy, consumers are going to continue to be very, very conservativein their spending. But no matter how much consumers earn and no matter how much discretionary income they have available, they still want to be perceived as "wise shoppers." In 2009 that title is bound to be more of an economic imperative than one having to do with fiscal self-image. This will be especially true given current economic indicators, all exacerbated by a decreased lack of trust in—and increased suspicions about—the old established financial and retail establishments. The precipitous decline in the economy will feed the ongoing trend of brands being unable to provide meaningful differentiation or resonating values, except, of course, those of low, lower, lowest prices.

2. Differentiation, meaning and added-values matter more.

Marketers will need to be sure their brands actually stand for something significant in the mind of the consumer. Awareness as a meaningful market force has long been obsolete, and differentiation will be critical for success, i.e., sales and profitability. Those who primarily rely on "flavor of the month" promotional tactics will quickly find that they are creating a lasting perception among their consumer base that only price (or price cuts) differentiates their products from the competition. Do that often enough and your product and service will move away from being a "brand" and will come to be regarded as a "category placeholder" and nothing more.

3. Engagement is not a fad. It is the brand objective.

It has already been proved that real engagement correlates with positive consumer behavior. Engagement should be defined by consumer response: it is the outcome of any marketing or media initiative that substantively improves a brand's equity (the degree to which a brand is seen to meet—or even exceed—consumers' expectations for the category in which it competes). Marketers will realize that attaining real brand engagement is impossible if they continue to try to measure it using out-dated attitudinal models. Marketers will come to accept that there are four engagement methods including platform (TV, online); context (program, Web page); message (ad or communication), and experience (store/event). But there's only one objective: brand engagement.

4. Media planning will be more innovative, touch-point focused and two-way.

Planners will still classify media touch points as "above-the-line," "below-the-line" and "new," but planning will be based on some critical considerations: Which touch point will best reinforce brand values? Where will the brand + media equation yield real engagement?

Effectiveness will result only where the plan is seamless, believable, personalized, and authentic. Media planning innovation and technological innovation will become one and the same.

Mobile devices are becoming an increasingly important touch point for consumers and in 2009 will be a starting point for migration from desktop to laptop to blacktop. Location-aware software for phones should inspire the mobile medium, so expect promotional coupons to show up along with IMs and look for greater granularity in measuring marketing ROI. Marketing dollars transitioning to online isn't new, but social networks will also become more engaged in engagement to help marketers more effectively deliver messages and determine return on their efforts.

Next page: #5-9 loyalty and engagement trends for '09