There’s still going to be a decline in holiday sales, but it will be minimal. According to the National Retail Federation, holiday sales will decline 1%, to $437.6 billion.
Granted, that’s well below the 10-year average annual gain of 3.39%. But during 2008, holiday sales fell by 3.4% from the previous year, and retail sales for all of 2009 are expected to be off by 3%.
The Federation bases its prediction on a few hopeful signs, including better-than-expected sales in August and momentum in the stock market. But the organization cautioned that continued consumer uncertainty over job security and housing values will take a toll on spending this holiday season.
Additionally, as retailers become even more promotional, certain popular holiday categories like apparel and electronics may experience deflation due to aggressive sales.
“As the global economy continues to recover from the worst economic crisis most retailers have ever seen, Americans will focus primarily on practical gifts and shop on a budget this holiday season,” said NRF chief economist Rosalind Wells in a statement
The NRF defines “holiday sales” as retail industry sales during November and December. Retail industry sales include most traditional retail categories including discounters, department stores, grocery stores, and specialty stores, and exclude sales at automotive dealers, gas stations, and restaurants.
