A person at a conference recently asked my prediction for the Next Big Thing.
I started to explain that if I knew that, I would be retired with my millions instead of grinding out drivel for a magazine. But then I thought about it, and it turns out I did have a prediction to offer.
The Next Big Thing?
Direct mail. Yes, good old paper junk mail.
It is the only targeted medium that hasn't almost been regulated out of existence, and that may be because it's the least offensive and annoying.
Yankelovich and Direct found in a survey last summer (“The Whys Behind the Buys,” August) that 67% of all consumers had purchased by catalog in the past year, and 46% in response to direct mail. (For our purposes we'll group catalogs and direct mail together under the heading of paper mail.) In contrast 16% bought via e-mail, 12% through banner ads and 5% through outbound telemarketing.
That perception is backed up by anecdotal evidence and by surveys that show that people still rely on catalogs and mailing pieces even when researching products online.
So why aren't marketers clamoring to mail more?
Because it costs so much and because there are too few newly refreshed lists in certain markets.
But the time may have arrived to weigh those additional costs with the quality of the response, and with the potential legal exposure.
What's more expensive, a direct mail campaign with a predictable ROI based on response analysis or a telemarketing program that lands you in legal trouble with the FTC?
Postal costs can be controlled, but not the billable hours it takes for a lawyer to negotiate even the simplest of consent decrees with a federal agency. (Don't forget that we still have at least a couple of good years of postage rate stability.)
And what's more annoying in the end — dealing with printers with all their deadlines, or with the Utah courts, which allow consumers to sue you every time they feel they've been spammed?
Which is not to say that e-mail — or telemarketing — are going away. E-mail remains a great customer service tool, and when done properly it may even have some uses in prospecting. But digital printing allows paper mailers to mimic e-mail's personalized messaging capabilities.
That brings us to a second prediction: That there will be a return to DM basics. All the online tools — e-mail, search engine marketing, pop-ups — work better when they're backed by traditional DM targeting and analysis.
Sorry that this solution isn't a magic bullet that will transform your business overnight. On the other hand, it just might be simple and stupid enough to work.
